In the recent presidential election in the US, former President and Republican Party candidate Donald Trump has ensured his return to the White House by defeating Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris. In the last few days, the US stance has also started giving signs of a change in the Russia-Ukraine war. Newspapers from all over the world have asked themselves what Trump’s victory means. For this article, I have analyzed the news published on Trump’s victory in some major newspapers of Russia and Ukraine and also spoke to Dr. Swasti Rao (specialist in defense and international affairs) and Mr. Abhay Singh (deputy from Kursk, Russia) in an attempt to understand the implications of this victory for the Russia-Ukraine war.
From Russian newspapers
Mikhail Gorodilov writes for Tinkoff that Trump has said he will reduce the corporate tax rate from 21 to 15 percent for those industries whose production occurs in the United States. There is a danger of the US budget decreasing seriously due to this move by Trump. Trump has promised to increase the import duty on Chinese products to 60%. Currently, it is 12%1. There is a possibility of increasing the import duty of other countries from 2% to 20%. This may increase inflation. Trump has also called for the expulsion of one million immigrants living illegally in America. According to Gorodilov, the cost of expelling one immigrant is about 14 thousand dollars, so this can prove to be a costly step.
Russia’s exports may decrease. Citing Goldman Sachs, Gorodilov writes that the US dollar may strengthen due to Trump’s big steps. Gold prices may also increase due to extreme uncertainty in the markets. The future of cryptocurrency may be bright due to Trump’s stance. Joe Biden imposed severe sanctions on Russia, while Trump has talked about reducing sanctions against Russia during his election campaign. It remains to be seen whether Trump will be able to do something like this as President?
The report of RIA Novosti is quite interesting. During the election campaign, Trump had repeatedly said that as soon as he became president, he would stop this war, because it is in the interest of America. People are dying in Russia and Ukraine and Trump will stop it. This effort can also include Elon Musk’s plan of accepting at least part of the contested area as Russian2. Criticizing Joe Biden, Trump also said that he would try to strengthen relations with Israel, and is also going to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump has also discussed Washington’s cooperation in establishing relations between Tel Aviv and Tehran. Trump has also criticized NATO countries for not spending properly on their defense capability. It is also believed that Trump also expects compensation from his allies for the ammunition sent to Ukraine. Citing several sources, RIA’s report concludes that Trump will transfer Ukraine’s funding and his attitude towards Israel and China may be the same as before.
In his article, Sergei Tereshkin emphasizes what Trump’s victory means for Russia. He believes that a partial easing of sanctions on Russia can be expected. This will provide Russian companies a way to reach the American market and increase investment possibilities in Russia. American investors can focus on oil-gas, financial services and new technologies, increasing their interest in the Russian market. Russia and America can also complement each other in terms of energy and logistics. According to Tereshkin, if Trump focuses on the American oil and gas industry like his previous tenure, it will affect Russian exports. However, if Trump adopts a flexible stance on these issues, then Russia can benefit. Analyzing Trump’s NATO stance on the same lines as RIA’s report, Tereshkin writes that Russia will have to focus on its defense strategy while being ready for any change. Apart from this, Russia and America will benefit from working together on the issue of cyber security.
Kommersant, while describing the speeches given by Trump during his election campaign and the reaction of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to them, has written that Trump’s speeches may be mere talk. Hungary’s foreign minister has said on the Republican Party’s victory that this has increased the possibility of a peaceful solution to the Ukraine war. Whereas Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said that it does not matter to Russia who is in the White House. According to Alexei Arbatov, an expert on international affairs at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Trump had made many promises last time as well but he backed out from his statements. According to Kommersant, there is a possibility of verbal improvement in Russia-US relations, but it is difficult to say how much they will improve in reality.
Monocle writes “Ukraine is not at all at the center of the contradictions in Russian-American relations; it is only a symptom of a general crisis. But the real and fundamental problem for both countries was Washington’s inconsistent policy toward Moscow after the end of the Cold War. The United States considered Russia too strong to accept into the ranks of its allies, but too weak to negotiate with it on equal terms. As a result, As a rule, this duality led to wild consequences.” Monocle, making a serious analysis of Russia-US relations, US-Europe relations, and the situation in Kyiv, writes that US President-elect Donald Trump carefully conceals his vision for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, not because a plan does not exist yet, but on the contrary, because it exists, but many in the West would not like it.
Denis Davydov for Regnum writes that some experts speak of a non-reconciliation between the US and the European Union, while Trump’s attitude towards China has also received mixed reactions. On the Russia-Ukraine issue, Regnum writes that Ukrainians do not control their country or their destiny. And no matter what Donald Trump does as president, he will do it without consulting the Kyiv regime.
Rostislav Ishchenko for Ukraina writes “I want to emphasize that first The only conclusion that can be drawn from the announced appointments is that the entire team is made up of people who see the world through the prism of American hegemony and intend to defend it rigorously at any cost. Meaning, necessarily, people who promised Americans to do it better than Biden, and intend to keep their promise. “
Fedor Lukyanov, a professor at Russia’s National Research University for Global Affairs, writes in his column: “Trump is not lying when he talks about the need to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine and Gaza.” The Ukraine crisis has reached a stage where Russia will have to deal with it thoughtfully and not impulsively. Trump’s arrival may open up new paths for Russia.
From Ukrainian newspapers
Karina Bondarenko writes for TSN that there is a possibility that the US will increase sanctions pressure on Russia or provide the necessary weapons. It is also possible that Ukraine may receive some loans. All this will be determined by how events develop.
News Europe has published an interview with Alyona Hetmanchuk, in which she said that “Trump’s victory means a chance to roll back the policy of dosed support implemented by the Biden administration.” This policy has failed not only from the point of view of Ukraine’s ability to liberate temporarily occupied territories but also from the point of view of defending the current situation. In such a situation, Ukraine needs to get closer to European countries, to create a “coalition of the determined”. These are the countries that understand that European security cannot depend on the results of elections in the United States and are ready to take more decisive steps, up to the point of sending their military components to Ukraine.” Also that “Donald Trump can help prevent war, but cannot end it.” What will the future president be able to do if he is not paralyzed in his actions by fear of escalation of tensions and is ready to demonstrate to Putin with the help of specific political decisions that for him the continuation of the war will not mean the end of independent Ukraine, but the end of his own regime.”
Anastasia Mosorko analyzed Ukrainian social media for Life Pravda. Many users on social media are appealing to Trump’s promise to stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his victory. A fairly large number of Ukrainians have expressed dissatisfaction with Trump’s election. Many users are voicing their opinion on Trump’s victory with the help of satire and memes.
PIK has published statements by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmihal and Zelensky. Shmihal named Ukraine’s hopes from Trump’s victory. In particular, he said that our state is counting on the strengthening of strategic partnership and the coming of a just peace, PIK writes.
Diana Mogilevich wrote a summary of a conversation with Max Molfer Gordeev – a tarot reader – in the Unian. Gordeev says that my point of view suggests that at the moment the fate of Ukraine is connected with global forces that go beyond politics. Ukraine will have to undergo a kind of test of independence, preserving its internal strength and wisdom.
Premium has said in its analysis that the victory of US President Donald Trump in the elections is likely to reduce military aid to Ukraine and push Kiev to make a “peace agreement”, which will probably include territorial concessions, which will be beneficial to Russia. Printing the statement of a Ukrainian official, Premium writes: “But over time, he will see that Putin cannot be trusted. Putin is angry with Trump and his plans. Only then will we start to see some benefits from Trump. He will not want Putin to play with him.’
Conclusion
Defense, strategic, and foreign affairs expert Dr. Swasti Rao says that with the arrival of Trump, there is no hope of much change in America’s position in the Russia-Ukraine war. It is also possible that Trump may increase the sanctions on Russia even more for a short period.
On the other hand, Deputy Mr. Abhay Singh from Kursk, Russia says that Trump has already been in touch with Russia. With the arrival of Trump, Elon Musk’s plan for Ukraine will be implemented. There have been speculations that with Trump’s arrival, Elon Musk’s plan for Ukraine will be implemented. Trump may first adopt a tough stance towards Russia but gradually he will try to end this war.
Anyway, from the analysis of Russian and Ukrainian media and the statement of two experts, it seems certain that America’s stance towards the Russia-Ukraine dispute will change, but what role Trump will be able to play in this war will depend on his priorities for America.
- The tariffs on Chinese imports to the US differ somewhat between categories and they have recently gone up under Biden. For electric vehicles and solar cells, it’s 25%. Under Bidens’s new regime, it is 100% on electric vehicles. ↩︎
- Elon Musk has made various statements over the period of the war concerning the future of Ukraine. In 2022 he proposed letting Russia keep Crimea and redoing the vote in the remaining areas under UN supervision. In 2023, he agreed with David Sacks who stated: “Ukraine has lost Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, most of Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia forever.” ↩︎