Bangladesh is currently experiencing one of the more turbulent periods in its history. What began as a student protest against preferential treatment for independence fighters’ families has escalated into a broader political and social crisis. From violent clashes in the streets to the toppling of monuments, the unrest has drawn in a wide array of actors—from student leaders and radical Islamist factions to the military and opposition parties. Amidst this chaos, questions about the nation’s political future, its relationship with India, and the fate of its vulnerable minority communities loom large.
In early July 2024, a wave of students’ protest began in Bangledesh. The initial reason for the protests was a high court judgment that reinstated a system of preferential treatment for family members of people who had fought for Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971. This system had been removed in 2018 by the current government.
Even though the demands of the protesters were later on met, a wave of violence and destruction ensued. The protesters began to demand regime change in the country. Then, following the resignation of the then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a spree of violence started against other groups, including those representing other views, customs, and faiths. Monuments to persons who have made an impact on the country’s social, cultural, and political history have been demolished or will be if the current trend continues. Supporters of Sheikh Hasina’s political party, the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL)1, are being targeted after the regime change. Many have been killed, with several brutally attacked.
Concerns about the economy and the environment have taken a back seat, even though the interim government is led by a Nobel laureate who is an expert banker. Interestingly, what began as a student-led demonstration was quickly overrun by radicals, including members of Jamaat-e-Islami, an fundamentalist Islamist movement. The opposition parties, which had been avoiding elections for a time, were given the opportunity to return to power directly or indirectly. Some experts suspect foreign involvement.
While there are facts pointing in different directions diverse views on how to interpret them, one cannot avoid the fact that the country’s former leader began to act like an autocrat in the last phase of her long tenure. While economic growth was strong, the opposition was held at a distance. Furthermore, considering the proximity to India and demographic parallels (not in terms of numbers but of identity groups), the problems that could result from the situation to neighboring countries are worth investigating.
With these thoughts in mind, I spoke with Dr. Vasabjit Banerjee and Dr. Nalanda Roy.
Credits: Beth Wynn / Mississippi State University
Dr. Vasabjit Banerjee:
My core take is that India has difficult choices to make on Bangladesh because of the unfortunate mistake of tying domestic politics with Indo-Bangladesh relations, besides supporting the previous regime.
The Bangladesh regime change, as is becoming clearer everyday, was a combination of genuine unrest led by students, supported by the middle class with participants from Islamic fundamentalist groups, and allowed to occur by the military. Whereas students and fundamentalists are mobilized, it is only the last that has institutional power and access to guns and the training to do so.
Thus, the military is now best positioned in terms of shaping who achieves power, be it the BAL, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)2, some coalition including Jamaat-e-Islami, or some apolitical technocratic alternative with support from the BNP and Jamaat.
Indian media and sections of journalists, especially in the rightwing, have begun a narrative of Hindu persecution. There is obviously truth to this, as attested by photos and videos. However, the Indian government has to decide whether it will support the rights of Hindus in Bangladesh and/or open its borders for all Hindu, Buddhist, and Christian refugees. Should it also accept BAL supporters? That’s another important policy question.
Whatever the policy solution, accepting en masse refugees will destabilize the fragile peace in the border states in India’s Northeast and West Bengal. It is important to remind readers that Northeastern ethnic groups in Assam, Tripura, etc., do not distinguish Bengalis on religion: they see Bengalis as an ethnic group that competes for land and employment. Thus, this would be a repeat of historical patterns in 1947, 1965, and 1971 that has bedeviled the region. I think that the Indian government is aware of that.
Furthermore, on the one hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)3 leadership’s denigration of Bangladehi Muslims and support of Sheikh Hasina as she became increasingly authoritarian will need to be addressed for better India-Bangladesh relations. On the other hand, this will create electoral costs for the BJP, especially because Hindus in Bangladesh are being persecuted.
So, what has happened is that by tying popular electoral calculations with foreign policy with a neighbor, the Indian government has backed itself into a corner with harsh choices.
Credits: Nalanda Roy
Dr. Nalanda Roy:
Bangladesh is currently facing a complex crisis that threatens its progress and stability. Despite notable advancements in economic growth and social development, the country is grappling with a combination of political, economic, and environmental challenges that are increasingly urgent. Political instability, characterized by entrenched party rivalries and governance issues, has undermined democratic processes and obstructed effective policy implementation. At the same time, economic issues such as income inequality and dependence on an unstable garment industry pose significant barriers to sustainable growth.
Environmental threats further complicate the situation, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and straining resources. These crises are deeply interconnected, involving overlapping political, economic, and environmental issues that should be examined to understand their implications for the future of Bangladesh.
Political instability is a central element of the crisis in Bangladesh. Since gaining independence in 1971, the country has endured persistent political unrest, marked by frequent government changes, allegations of corruption, and widespread religious and ethnic violence. The political landscape is dominated by intense rivalry between the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), often resulting in violent clashes that undermine democratic processes and effective governance. The most recent national elections in January 2024 were tainted by allegations of vote rigging and irregularities, intensifying political divisions. The opposition accused the ruling party of widespread fraud, while the ruling party faced criticism for its management of the electoral process. This instability, coupled with the continued persecution of the Hindus, undermines democratic institutions and fosters uncertainty that affects both domestic governance and international relations.
Economic challenges are another critical aspect of Bangladesh’s crisis. Despite significant economic growth over the past two decades, the country faces obstacles that impede its development. Income inequality remains a major concern, as wealth distribution is uneven despite progress in reducing poverty. The country’s economic growth has heavily depended on the ready-made garment (RMG) industry, which exposes Bangladesh to global market fluctuations and labor exploitation issues. Furthermore, corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies impose an additional burden on the government.
Environmental threats are also a pressing issue for Bangladesh. As a low-lying delta nation, the country is particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, rising sea levels, flooding, and unpredictable rainfall patterns that pose serious risks for Bangladesh.
Addressing the crisis in Bangladesh requires a comprehensive approach that considers the interconnected nature of political instability, economic challenges, and environmental threats. Effective solutions will necessitate coordinated efforts from both the government and the international community. We hope that Bangladesh can navigate its current difficulties and build a more stable and prosperous future.
- The Bangladesh Avami League (BAL) is the oldest political party in existence in Bangladesh and one of the two most dominant parties. ↩︎
- The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is the other dominant party in Bangladesh. ↩︎
- The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a political party in India. It is one of the two dominant parties and prime minister Modi belongs to this party. ↩︎